Superbowl XLIII Breakdown

Well one thing is for sure in this Superbowl: Arizona will try and win the game with offense while Pittsburgh will try to win the game with defense. Arizona had one of the top offenses in the league before they found their running game and now that they have that going, they may just have the best offense in the NFL. The complete opposite can be said of the Steelers – their game is entirely premised on defense as they had the top ranked defense in overall yardage, against the pass and scoring. They were second best against the run. The more interesting matchup in this game will definitely be when the Cardinals have the ball and the Steelers are on defense.

All in all, I think the Steelers will get the better of that matchup. As I said before the NFC Championship game, Kurt Warner is at his best when he has time to throw and feels no pressure. I believe that the Eagles were completely spent after the Giants game so they were unable to get any consistent pressure against Warner and it showed. He was completely comfortable as was Larry Fitzgerald. Unlike the Eagles, I expect the Steelers will try and jam Fitzgerald at the line to disrupt the timing between him and Warner. Teams routinely ride a running back or quarterback through a playoff run. It is rare that a team rides a wide receiver, but that is what the Cardinals are doing. The Steelers have to get in his face and make him work for his yardage. They won’t be able to shut him down, but they can eliminate his big play potential.

The interesting thing about these games where one side of the matchup gets all the attention is that many times the other matchup ends up playing a much larger role in the game than people realize. So what can we say about Pittsburgh’s offense v. Arizona’s defense? For the Steelers, its all about the running game and Willie Parker. The interesting thing about the Cardinals playoff run is that they were playing with the lead for most of it. In fact the Cardinals were leading in over 80% of the time of possession in their three playoff games, and in all three games they had leads of more than 10 points in the first half. This meant teams were playing from behind. This caused their opponents to get away from running the ball. The Steelers will not abandon the run, even if they do get in an early hole.

The only reservation I have in picking the Steelers is Kurt Warner. In the game against the Eagles, I think he proved that he is a future Hall of Famer. In his career he has now reached the Superbowl with two different teams, including one that hasn’t won anything in over 60 years. I also keep going back to the drive he orchestrated against us in the 4th quarter which took 14 plays, went 72 yards drive and took 7 minutes 52 seconds off the clock. Like I said, that was a drive that champions make and Kurt Warner proved he is a champion. While I think Ben Roethlisberger is a good quarterback, the Cardinals clearly have the advantage at quarterback and that is usually a big deal in Superbowls.

Kurt Warner aside, I still have to give the edge to the Steelers. When in doubt, go with the defense. I think the Steelers defense will find a way to disrupt the Cardinals passing game and Willie Parker, Ben Roethlisberger and Hines Ward will make just enough plays on offense to win much like they did in Superbowl XL. My prediction: Steelers 24, Cardinals 14.

Countdown to Sunday’s Big Event

Well it is 5 days to the big event. It is the day that Donovan McLabb (my dog for those who don’t know) waits for all year long. The one event that even my wife Jen will take time from her busy schedule to watch. Even people who don’t like sports will tune in for this once in a year event, because once you start watching, I guarantee you won’t be able to stop.

That event is, of course, Puppy Bowl V. What did you think I was going to say?

For those who don’t know, it airs on Animal Planet and starts at 3 PM. It features cute puppies playing with each other & comes complete with instant replays, puppy penalties and play-by-play from the Phillies own Harry Kalas. It is perfect counter programming for those of you who don’t want to watch 5 hours of pre-game analysis for one game. I’m a huge football fan and I can’t watch that much analysis for one game. In fact, the first year of the Puppy Bowl was the same year the Eagles made it to the Superbowl and I found it to be the perfect distraction before the game.

I will provide one warning to watching the Puppy Bowl. There are a lot of commercials promoting pet adoption, so watching it may cause you to develop the desire to go out and rescue a dog from a shelter, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

As you get ready to watch the game on Sunday, tune in and check it out. I don’t think you’ll be disappointed. As for Sunday’s real big event, check back later this week for my analysis and prediction.

Worst Sunday of the Year

As I sit here on the Sunday afternoon before the Superbowl, I am struck by how this is the worst Sunday of the year for sports. Think about it – from September through January, we have NFL football every week, then there is a week off until the Superbowl. In February, you can watch the Pro-Bowl and the NBA All-Star Game, baseball spring training starts and if you’re into it, NASCAR starts its season. March of course brings us college basketball’s March Madness. April, May and June is filled with the beginning of the baseball season and the conclusion of the NBA & NHL seasons and their playoffs. Baseball continues in July and August, plus the weather’s beautiful any way. That gets us back to September and the start of the NFL season. It is this one week that just sticks out. Sure, there are some basketball games on and there is the NHL All-Star game, but it’s just not the same, especially when you are coming off the NFL conference championships and you’re leading into the premier sporting event of the year – the Superbowl.

This got me to thinking: there is an easy solution for this if the NCAA would get its act together. This could be the week of the NCAA football championship. If they had a playoff system, this could be the week that the final game is played. With an eight team playoff, they could have the quarter final games played during the traditional bowl games on New Years Day. They could use the big four bowl games that are currently part of the BCS – the Fiesta Bowl, the Orange Bowl, the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl. The semi-finals could then be played the Saturday of the NFL conference championships and the Championship game could be this week. If it were this year, the schedule would be as follows:

Quarter-finals: January 1-2
Semi-finals: January 17
Finals: January 25

Seems like a simple solution, doesn’t it? Which begs the question, why can’t the NCAA figure this out? Eventually, I think they will come up with some system, but until then, we’ll just have to sit here on the worst Sunday in sports and wonder when they’ll get their act together.

What Went Wrong for the Eagles

Well, Andy Reid’s going to Hawaii again! (For those of you who don’t know, the losing coaches in the conference championship games coach their respective conferences in the Pro-Bowl.) This will be the 4th time in 8 years he has had that honor. Personally, I’m getting sick of it. I’m still a little bitter, can you tell? I’m sorry that this post has taken longer than some of you would have liked, but I needed 24 hours to decompress after that gut-wrenching loss. If I’m going to be “rational” I need to allow some time for me to write somewhat objectively.

So, what went wrong? I know that there will be a lot of discussions in the media (and maybe even by me later) that Donovan came up small when it counted on the last drive, but I think the bulk of the blame for this game rests on the defense. It was the defense which came out flat in the first half and surrendered 24 points. It was the defense that after the offense finally took the lead, had to stop the Cardinals and gave up a grueling 14 play, 72 yard drive that took 7 minutes 52 seconds off the clock. Say what you want about the game yesterday, but that was a drive that champions make and Kurt Warner proved he is a champion. In all my analysis, I think I underrated his role on the Cardinals and his importance in the game. Except for the 3rd quarter, the Eagles did not get the pressure on him that they needed and it showed.

I’ll go back to what I said last week, I was concerned about over confidence and playing like they had already made it because they beat the Giants. The way the defense came out and played flat, I think they had nothing left to play after dominating the Giants the week before. I guess maybe that confirms the explanation of that stat I referenced last week that teams that beat the reigning Superbowl Champs are (now) 0-12 the next week. I don’t mean to say that I told you so, but when the Eagles continued to give Larry Fitzgerald a free release from the line of scrimmage, I knew it wasn’t going to be good. What happened? Just 9 catches for 152 yards and 3 touchdowns. There were a few times that they jammed him, but for the most part they played off him in that soft zone that they like to play. On especially the 2 touchdowns where the Cardinals were in the red zone, the play was based on timing and Fitzgerald getting a free release allowed him to be exactly where he was supposed to be when Warner wanted to throw the ball. Warner and Fitzgerald were both comfortable and that was a deadly combination.

All that said, they still had a chance to comeback in the second half and they came up short. After the game was over, I said that I almost wish that they had not come back, because it was much more gut wrenching that they had the lead and then let it get away. I give them credit for not quitting. I have been critical of Andy Reid over the years, but one thing you usually cannot say is that his team quit. Unfortunately, one thing I do find myself saying a lot is that they cannot finish either.

So, where do we go from here? This was a tough loss to take. I heard someone on the radio say it was toughest of all the NFC Championship Game losses to take. I disagree. I still think the loss in 2002-03 to the Buccaneers was the toughest because that was our best chance to win a Superbowl. If we would have won yesterday, I think we would have had a tough time with the Steelers in two weeks. That being said, this may be the second toughest, if only because it seemed like everything had lined up perfectly for them and they didn’t take full advantage.

As we go through the off season, I’ll comment on what I think they need to do moving forward (i.e. do they resign McNabb?). For now, we’ll just have to repeat Philadelphia’s favorite mantra – “There’s always next year.”

What I'll Be Looking for in the NFC Championship Game

In watching tomorrow's game, they'll be a few things I'll be watching, especially early. Like I said in my prior posts, my one concern is over confidence. If a team is over confident or looking beyond an opponent, it usually manifests itself in mental mistakes. They'll take bad penalties, such as false starts (when crowd noise isn't an issue)and illegal procedure/formation on offense. On defense, they'll be out of position or will blow a time out on defense because they don't get the proper substitutions on the field. Any events like this could spell trouble.

To win this game on offense, I think we need to continue the balanced attack of run & pass, even if the run isn't working. If Brian Westbrook isn't 100% (or even 80-90%), then we need to use Correll Buckhalter to run the ball. When we beat them on Thanksgiving, we had a very balanced attack which kept their defense guessing all day. As is true in any game, look to see who is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. If Donavan is protected and has time to throw the ball, he is difficult to stop and can pick apart just about any defense. The one stat that still jumps out at me from the Giants game is that the Giants did not sack Donavan all season - that's 12 quarters of football & no sacks. That is what allows you to beat the reigning Superbowl champs 2 out of 3 times (and the 1 loss was only by 5 points). All in all, I think the Eagles will be able to move the ball on the Cardinals as long as we don't have turnovers and stupid penalties (see above).

As is the case with most Eagles games, the key is our defense. You may hear a lot of talk about their wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and while these receivers a very good, they are not speedy. This allows the Eagles to play press coverage with their good secondary. Jamming the receivers at the line of scrimmage will disrupt the timing of their passing game and hopefully make Kurt Warner uncomfortable. Early in the game, I'll be looking to see how much cushion the corner backs are giving their receivers. In my opinion, they shouldn't be giving them much of one at all. Kurt Warner is deadly if he has no pressure and his receivers are given a free release. Therefore, getting pressure on Warner is also critical. The Eagles need to hit him early and often. If they do, that should bode well for the game. If I were the Cardinals, I would use max protection & keep a back, tight end or both in to help with blocking. I also heard a pundit suggest that they should use a no huddle as it will prevent the Eagles from making the defensive substitutions that they like to do. Don’t be surprised if you see the Cardinals try this. If the Cardinals do try maximum protection, it will be even more important for us to disrupt the timing of the passing game by jamming the receivers. That is why the cushion we’re giving will be very important tomorrow.

Notice how I haven’t said anything about the Cardinals running game. While it has improved with Edgerrin James’ increased role, he is not a big play runner. James’ game is based on not getting negative yardage runs. In other words, he will consistently get gains of 3, 4, 5 or even 6 yards a carry, but he won’t break one off for 40 yards. This will allow the Eagles to focus on the pass and essentially play the run as they try and get to Kurt Warner. If the Cardinals are able to move the ball on the ground, look for the Eagles defense to simply play a “bend but don’t break” defense which will allow them to move the ball, but hold them to field goal attempts instead of touchdowns. We saw on Sunday, that the Giants were able to run and gain consistent yardage, but they did not allow the Giants in the end zone. I would expect the Eagles to use much the same approach this week against the Cardinals. If James is allowed to get a big run (i.e. more than 25 yards) or if he is getting in the end zone through the running game, that could spell trouble for the Eagles.

Just a few things to look for tomorrow. Enjoy the game & GO EAGLES!!

0 for 11!!

After I published my breakdown yesterday for the NFC Championship, I heard an interesting stat. A team that beats the defending Superbowl champ in the playoffs and then plays a regular playoff game the next week (i.e. not the Superbowl) is 0-11. That is the exact situation that the Eagles are in this week. They beat the Giants on Sunday who were the defending champs and are playing the NFC Championship this week. Here in Philadelphia, Mike Missanelli on 950 ESPN radio has been quoting this stat ad nauseum for the last two days now.

What does it mean? It means that the team that beats the defending champ in the playoffs is so emotionally spent that they don’t have enough for the next game. This would seem to mean that the Eagles are trying to overcome a rather daunting trend. So, am I changing my prediction? No! This is a year that trends are being broken. Consider this: before this year a #6 seed never beat the #1 seed in the NFC. The Eagles were a #6 seed when they beat the #1 seed Giants. Also, before this year, the lowest seeded team to ever host a Conference Championship in either the AFC or NFC was a #3 seed. The Cardinals are hosting this year as a #4 seed. One other final trend to break: no Conference Championship Game has ever had two teams with less than 10 wins (except in a strike-shortened season). The Eagles and Cardinals both only had 9 wins this year. By the way, despite the fact that he keeps quoting the stat, Mike Missanelli is still picking the Eagles too.

It does mean that I think the Eagles have to be very conscious of having a let down though. It will be very interesting to see how the Eagles come out & start this game. As we get closer to the game, I’ll try and post some things I’ll be watching for as the game progresses, so check back prior to game time.

On another note, Simeon asked me what I thought of the AFC game between the Steelers & Ravens. In the two games these teams played during the regular season, the Steelers won two close defensive matchups. I never bought into the concept that it is hard to beat a team 3 times in one season. If you beat them twice, you were obviously better than them, so why can’t you beat them a third time? With these teams, defense will remain supreme again. They weren’t the top two defenses in the league for nothing. Don’t look for a lot of scoring. Unfortunately for the Ravens, they are very banged up and two of their main defensive starters (CB Samari Rolle and Pro Bowl LB/DE Terrell Suggs) will probably miss the game. This does not bode well for them as it will let the Steelers move the ball a little easier and in a defensive struggle, that’s all you need. All in all, I think the Steelers win so that we will get our Keystone Superbowl & the Parrish household will be ripped apart as the lead up to the big game will pit brother against brother. Final score on the AFC game: Steelers 17, Ravens 6.

NFC Championship Game Breakdown

Well for the 5th time in 8 years, the Eagles are playing for the right to go to the Superbowl. At some point, we will have to look back at that accomplishment & evaluate just what it means in terms of this team’s greatness (or not) throughout this decade, but not now. For now, the critical thing is the upcoming game this Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.

I usually have a feeling about a game. Sometimes it is way off, but usually it is fairly accurate. For instance, before the last game of the season against Dallas, when I saw everything broke just right in the early games, I told the friend that I was watching the game with that I figured we’d whip up on the Cowboys. I can also usually sense when they’re due for a let down. That being said, I can’t get a feel for this game. I see no reason why we shouldn’t win, but that is exactly what has me worried – overconfidence. In fact, it almost seemed that the Eagles were celebrating too much after the Giants win. Like they had already booked their trip to Tampa. We’ve seen this script before. I am reminded of the divisional playoff game against the Green Bay Packers in January of 2004. That was the game with the unbelievable comeback, including the conversion on 4th & 26. After that game, the Eagles & their fans acted as though their trip to the Superbowl was a sure thing. What happened? The Carolina Panthers came into the Linc & handed it to the Eagles. Overconfidence is my one hangup with this game.

That aside, I like the Eagles chances a lot. If you look at the other NFC Championship Games which the Eagles lost, they do provide some guidance for this one. In 2001-02, they lost to the St. Louis Rams, who were a better team and much more playoff seasoned, being only two years removed from their Superbowl win. In 2002-03 and 2003-04, I believe they ran into teams (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in ’02-’03 and the Panthers in ’03-’04) where they got out-coached and caught by surprise going against a superior defense.

Between the Eagles and Cardinals, the Eagles are the more playoff seasoned team and I believe they are clearly the better team as well. Consider this: The Cardinal’s record was 9-7, but 6 of their wins came against teams in their own division, which was arguably the worst in football. The other three teams in their division had a combined record of 13-35 for a winning percentage of .271 and 6 of those 13 wins were against each other. This means that the Cardinals record against opponents other than their division was 3-7 and we all know what happened when the Eagles played the Cardinals on Thanksgiving.

What about a superior defense? Here’s an interesting fact: this year the NFL’s top 3 rated defenses were, in order: Pittsburgh; Baltimore; Philadelphia. Notice anything? All those teams are still playing. Arizona is #19. This is according to yards surrendered. What about points, because that is what matters? Pittsburgh is #1, Baltimore is #3 and Philadelphia is #4 (Tennessee was #2). Where is Arizona? Try #28! The old maxim is that defense wins championships and those stats are proving the maxim true. I know there are a lot of pundits that are saying that Arizona is playing much better defense in the post season, but I don’t buy it. In their first game, the Atlanta Falcons scored 24 points against them, which was essentially the Falcons average score on the year. In game two, they faced Jake Delhomme and the Carolina Panthers. To say that Jake Delhomme had a bad game would be a HUGE understatement. The Panthers quarterback had 6 turnovers (5 interceptions and 1 fumble). Essentially, Delhomme gave the Cardinals the game. This is not to say that the Cardinals didn’t force him into some of those mistakes, but as I watched the game, he made some really bad decisions. I am not going to say that a defense has turned around based on those two games.

All this gets me back to my original point I made in this post which was that I can see no reason why we shouldn’t win. If the Eagles play their game and don’t lose the turnover battle, I don’t see how we won’t win and win easy. My prediction: Eagles 31, Cardinals 13.

Cincinnati Trip

For my first post, I figured I would share about the road trip my cousin Craig & I took this year. The weekend of November 15 & 16, we made the trip west to my old college stomping grounds & went to the Eagles v. Bengals game in Cincinnati, OH. Above is a picture of our view for the game. In case you forgot, this was the infamous tie that Donovan McNabb did not know could occur. One of my lasting memories of this game was the prediction my cousin made with about 7:00 left in the game. The Eagles were losing 13-10 at the time, but they had the ball and were driving. Craig’s words were, “You know what’s gonna happen. They’ll hold us to a field goal; the game will go into overtime & the way these teams are playing, it’ll end in a tie.” How true & how prophetic.

We took several pictures of the action that day. How fitting was it that the best one was of the defense bearing down, trying to pin the Bengals deep in their territory. That picture is to the right.

Now that the Eagles are in the NFC Championship Game, it almost seems like a distant memory. The Bengals game together with the Ravens game which followed the next week were certainly the low point of the season. Amazingly, the Eagles now stand one game from the Superbowl. However, in reflecting on that Bengals game, I must now admit that if it weren’t for that tie, I don’t think the Eagles would be where they are now. We all know now that if they would have lost that game, they would have been tied with the Cowboys, Buccaneers and Bears and they would have been out of the playoffs on the tie breakers. However, if they would have won, I don’t think Donovan gets benched the next week, and whether he wants to admit it or not, the benching in Baltimore was clearly the turning point for Donovan and the team as a whole.

Maybe I’m just trying to find the silver lining in what was a miserable game. Although, my response to Craig after the game was, “Hey, at least we’re still undefeated in our road trips.” We’re now 2-0-1 when following the Eagles on the road. Below is one more picture: the frustrating scoreboard at the end of the game.