NFC Championship Game Breakdown

Well for the 5th time in 8 years, the Eagles are playing for the right to go to the Superbowl. At some point, we will have to look back at that accomplishment & evaluate just what it means in terms of this team’s greatness (or not) throughout this decade, but not now. For now, the critical thing is the upcoming game this Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.

I usually have a feeling about a game. Sometimes it is way off, but usually it is fairly accurate. For instance, before the last game of the season against Dallas, when I saw everything broke just right in the early games, I told the friend that I was watching the game with that I figured we’d whip up on the Cowboys. I can also usually sense when they’re due for a let down. That being said, I can’t get a feel for this game. I see no reason why we shouldn’t win, but that is exactly what has me worried – overconfidence. In fact, it almost seemed that the Eagles were celebrating too much after the Giants win. Like they had already booked their trip to Tampa. We’ve seen this script before. I am reminded of the divisional playoff game against the Green Bay Packers in January of 2004. That was the game with the unbelievable comeback, including the conversion on 4th & 26. After that game, the Eagles & their fans acted as though their trip to the Superbowl was a sure thing. What happened? The Carolina Panthers came into the Linc & handed it to the Eagles. Overconfidence is my one hangup with this game.

That aside, I like the Eagles chances a lot. If you look at the other NFC Championship Games which the Eagles lost, they do provide some guidance for this one. In 2001-02, they lost to the St. Louis Rams, who were a better team and much more playoff seasoned, being only two years removed from their Superbowl win. In 2002-03 and 2003-04, I believe they ran into teams (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in ’02-’03 and the Panthers in ’03-’04) where they got out-coached and caught by surprise going against a superior defense.

Between the Eagles and Cardinals, the Eagles are the more playoff seasoned team and I believe they are clearly the better team as well. Consider this: The Cardinal’s record was 9-7, but 6 of their wins came against teams in their own division, which was arguably the worst in football. The other three teams in their division had a combined record of 13-35 for a winning percentage of .271 and 6 of those 13 wins were against each other. This means that the Cardinals record against opponents other than their division was 3-7 and we all know what happened when the Eagles played the Cardinals on Thanksgiving.

What about a superior defense? Here’s an interesting fact: this year the NFL’s top 3 rated defenses were, in order: Pittsburgh; Baltimore; Philadelphia. Notice anything? All those teams are still playing. Arizona is #19. This is according to yards surrendered. What about points, because that is what matters? Pittsburgh is #1, Baltimore is #3 and Philadelphia is #4 (Tennessee was #2). Where is Arizona? Try #28! The old maxim is that defense wins championships and those stats are proving the maxim true. I know there are a lot of pundits that are saying that Arizona is playing much better defense in the post season, but I don’t buy it. In their first game, the Atlanta Falcons scored 24 points against them, which was essentially the Falcons average score on the year. In game two, they faced Jake Delhomme and the Carolina Panthers. To say that Jake Delhomme had a bad game would be a HUGE understatement. The Panthers quarterback had 6 turnovers (5 interceptions and 1 fumble). Essentially, Delhomme gave the Cardinals the game. This is not to say that the Cardinals didn’t force him into some of those mistakes, but as I watched the game, he made some really bad decisions. I am not going to say that a defense has turned around based on those two games.

All this gets me back to my original point I made in this post which was that I can see no reason why we shouldn’t win. If the Eagles play their game and don’t lose the turnover battle, I don’t see how we won’t win and win easy. My prediction: Eagles 31, Cardinals 13.